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In the dog days of the summer earnings season, I can't stop thinking in terms of hedging bets and over-explaining shortfalls and accentuating the positive in hopes of diluting the negative--all the things that comprise any company's earnings release or quarterly call.
In the still-shaky service provider sector, the most critical elements of financial success are often so new that they're not even there--which is fine if it's a realm so new that it has yet to produce revenue, but is not so great if it doesn't even warrant a mention for its potential. That was the case today in Qwest's Q2 call, which held no mention of fiber-to-the-premises initiatives or correlated revenue. With all of the disclosures that are required about how earnings calls involve looking ahead, one would think a carrier in Qwest's position would at least make some video promises to pique the interest of investors (along with potential acquirers or acquirees). The only form of video service mentioned in Qwest's call was via its affiliation with DirecTV--not terribly original, and certainly not a method of much future growth for any carrier.
That's much different from how Verizon presented its earnings last week, putting the emphasis on how it is upping its spending (on FTTP, primarily) rather than where it is still weak (like Qwest, in wireline access lines). The other primary difference between the two former Bells is in how they are each able to trumpet their wireless accomplishments: Verizon's mobile wireless business is booming, while Qwest can only position its in-region resale strategy as another potential way to staunch churn.
BellSouth, which also is able to focus on wireless growth via its Cingular affiliate, at least made mention of video plans in its own earnings report last week, even if it didn't trumpet FTTP plans just yet. But simply by addressing the possibility of delivering IPTV via ADSL2+, the carrier delivered the impression that it is actively pursuing video alternatives.
Here's the problem with not mentioning video at all, in whatever form it might take: Members of the cable ilk obviously will--and they know how to spin their earnings in a way that makes it abundantly clear what their telecom counterparts are not doing. Comcast's quarterly call today is a case in point: It highlighted the revenue boom Comcast is enjoying in areas where its telco competitors are just beginning to tread--namely, video, with all the HDTV, PVR and on-demand bells and whistles that are both craved by consumers and as-yet unavailable from most telcos.
E-mail me at jmeyers@primediabusiness.com. Vince Vittore is on vacation. His snappy repartee will return to this space next week.
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