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OSS: 10 public OSS companies to watch

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  1. ACE*COMM

    The promise of Ace*Comm is not in its stock price, although it did finish its fiscal year strong and turned its year-long flat line slightly north from $1 to nearly $3 (a 52-week high). Its promise lies in global penetration of its N*Vision convergent mediation product, particularly in China, and its full suite of network performance products for enterprises. Ace*Comm also has deployments with Level 3 Communications, Birch Telecom, Citizens Communications and BroadView Networks. In 2004, the company hopes to broaden its focus with the proposed acquisition of i3 Mobile, a provider of premium wireless content and services.
     

  2. ADC

    ADC has stuck it out in the OSS space, which could be its saving grace in 2004. With software wins at Iowa Telecom, Belgian Cable, Telecom New Zealand and T-Mobile in Austria, ADC has kept de-listing rumors to a minimum and also maintained a steady stock price in the middle of its high-and-low at $2.49. The company also recently put both the software and system integration business units under the leadership of president Jo Anne Anderson. If it continues to expand geographically through software sales, ADC could further offset its dependency on up to 30% of its revenue coming from the four RBOCs.
     

  3. AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES

    Agilent will end 2003 on a high note, returning to profitability by netting $13 million on revenues of $1.68 billion. That's not all coming from its OSS and test equipment businesses, but it puts the company in just the position CEO Ned Barnholt said it needs to be. Agilent has done its best to maintain R&D investment and develop new test tools for hot spots like wireless and IP. Timing of Agilent's many product releases, however, must coincide with the willingness of carriers and equipment manufacturers to spend money on them. If they don't, Agilent's return to profitability won't last long.
     

  4. AMDOCS

    Amdocs is not immune to pain—it just doesn't show it as much. The billing and CRM vendor ended its fiscal year at the high end of its 52-week range, and that was without fully realizing the benefits of taking a Sprint wireless contract away from Convergys. Last year, it lost $9 million in its final quarter; this year it had a net income of $43.9 million. Amdocs will be interesting to watch not for how it or its stock performs, but for what it does (or doesn't do) in M&A. The rumored acquisition of mediation company Xacct Technologies, if true, is an example of how patient Amdocs can be to get the price it wants.
     

  5. CONVERGYS

    Convergys has made moves toward improvement: modular product development, closer partner relationships, a new product for managing roaming, partner management and converged billing for WiFi, and new executives to drive global expansion. Third-quarter revenue of $570.7 million gave the company a 2% increase over the same period last year, but it could have been better without the 16% decrease from its Information Management Group. Its Customer Management Group grew by 13%. Watch Convergys closely to see how it responds to the need for more cost cuts.
     

  6. CSG SYSTEMS

    This billing outsourcer absorbed a big 3Q earnings hit due to an arbitration ruling that ordered it to pay $120 million to Comcast over a contract dispute. The first installment helped CSG sink to a net loss of $53.6 million. CSG also issued a new 8-K revising guidance for 2004, due to expenses for an employee stock exchange program. Like its competitors, CSG is hoping international contracts will save the day: It extended a deal with Saudi Telecom and signed Sky Italia, Thailand's integrated service provider TOT and China Telecom. Alltel also extended CSG's mediation contract for mobile IP services.
     

  7. DALEEN TECHNOLOGIES

    Daleen Technologies was a rising star in the CLEC and ISP sectors in the mid-1990s. Close to failure after bringing in $12.4 million in 2001—but only $6.4 million in 2002—Daleen bought veteran billing vendor Abiliti Solutions (previously Intertech). The acquisition brought new Tier 1 customers, including SBC. Daleen closed its most recent quarter with $4.9 million in revenue, an increase of 295.3% over last year. Credit goes to outsourcing revenue from Abiliti and a contract in Bogota, Columbia. The nine-month stretch ending in September brought in $13.2 million this year vs. $5.2 million last year. With its new Asuriti platform for revenue assurance, the company could see 2005.
     

  8. PORTAL SOFTWARE

    Just when you think Portal is down for the count, it bounces back with a next-generation hit parade of customers and solutions. And just when you think Portal Software is back on its feet, it bottoms out—like the company did last month when it lost nearly half its stock value in a single day because of earnings warnings. Analysts say Portal is not delivering according to preset milestones defined by its customers and worry about its ability to deliver on large deployments. Stock value was still above the 52-week low of $3.30 as of November 18. But with the competitive landscape being what it is in 2004, there won't be many chances to screw up.
     

  9. METASOLV

    Next year is the year this inventory management, order management, provisioning and activation company either sets itself apart as a true Tier 1 market leader or a sets itself up for a fall. If the company closes some of the business it hoped to last quarter, it could be off to a good start. MetaSolv closed a deal with Telefonica of Brazil for IP service activation and signed a reseller agreement with Ericsson for its IP activation solution. Global enterprise system integrator Wipro also signed on to resell MetaSolv's multiservice activation and resource management products. Those relationships could go a long way toward filling the gap some critics have cited in MetaSolv's reduced sales force. Also, 2004 will be Curtis Holmes' first full year as CEO. He has been largely responsible for MetaSolv's pushes into global and wireless markets.
     

  10. VERISIGN

    VeriSign's stock is near its peak for the year, after a steady climb since March. Best known for Internet transaction and registrar services, VeriSign expanded into security services, including managed security and fraud protection. But the company's telephony business — including SS7 signaling services, wireless roaming, CALEA, interconnection gateway services and other hosted OSS solutions — is often overlooked. VeriSign has enough irons in the fire to protect it against any single market shortfall and the outsourced business model carriers should be looking for in 2004 and beyond.

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