Survey says: AT&T is wrong
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Last week, I asked what you thought about AT&T's plans to stick with its fiber-to-the-node strategy, in the face of industry criticism, and you didn't disappoint. Most respondents agree with the critics that AT&T is being short-sighted, and they brought up some issues I didn't tackle, such as:
"Existing copper plant in many (most?) areas is aging, nearing capacity and desperately in need of replacement. Bonded copper products particularly for high-speed Ethernet delivery use many cable pairs per customer, introduce unnecessary latency and have the potential for dropped packets/broken video/voice during storms or other weather-related events. Given this, to continue to use copper products, more copper will have to be buried and flown in the field to both augment and repair the existing plant, and still won't offer the resiliency or bandwidth of a fiber product. A great deal of the cost is in the installation, so why not just install a long-term solution?"
--James
"The real question I would be asking is will compression over copper keep up with consumers' total bandwidth demands in the next five to ten years? As gas prices soar ever higher and tele-working [increases], customers will be looking for a synchronous connection for their business to go along with home Internet and IPTV connections. (Same pipe, multiple applications bandwidth of 50Mb/s+ is a very real possibility.) This along with more home-based businesses will be the true test in my mind of fiber to the node." --Jon
"I think that the real-world experience should figure prominently in whether or not the network architecture is valid. From what I see so far in some of the blogs, a significant number of techie early adapters are not happy with what they see on their screens. They have written about comparisons between their old systems (HD satellite and cable) and the new U-verse system and believe that compression artifacts are degrading the picture. This would be the bandwidth issue showing its ugly head. I think that most people aren't looking or don't care about the signal quality (the MP3/iPod factor). I myself have not done the comparison nor even seen the U-verse picture, but these techies usually know (and have the skills, expertise, etc., to know) what they are talking about." --Gregg
"If we should think back to just over half a century ago when the fiber optic gastroscope was patented, many of the class-one railroads in this country were only just coming to terms with the advent of diesel motive power. Sure, the steam locomotive had just reached its apex, and these venerable, undeniably powerful behemoths romanticized for over a century in popular culture were often faster and capable of more horsepower than their upstart brethren. But they were also labor intensive, temperamental and just plain hell on the infrastructure (sounds like a legacy problem). As Heraclitus said that 'nothing endures but change,' I wish the people at AT&T the best, although I fear we may see their devotion to the copper plant relegate them to quaint, nostalgic museums." --John
"The recent deployment of passive optical OSP systems will reduce maintenance cost in addition to providing greater bandwidth. In addition, wireless systems will see the same advantage due to compression improvements. AT&T will have wireless competitors without the OSP maintenance cost burden, and the MSOs and FTTH service providers will eat their lunch." --Bruce
"AT&T doesn't have a very good track record for predicting bandwidth growth, and they do have a position to protect with the Street guys. How much more would it cost to go as far as Verizon is going and say to the Street, 'The network is done, no future big needs for capital'? Now they have a huge downside to protect. And we haven't even seen the photonic revolution we will see in home entertainment yet, with holographic gaming and the like." --Robert
So did anyone take AT&T's side? Well yes, a couple of AT&T employees wrote to say they have seen U-verse at work, and it's doing great, thank you very much. Jon, who is quoted above, noted that many critics thought Ethernet couldn't be delivered over copper as well, but that is now a market reality and a successful one at that.
But for the most part, the skeptics outweigh those who think AT&T is just being realistic.
E-mail me at cwilson3@telephonyonline.com.
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