Shipments of IP/DSL set top boxes will grow from 1.7 million in 2004 to 16.9 million in 2009, based largely on telephone company deployments of television service, according to a new report from In-Stat. At its peak in 2009, the IPTV set top market will exceed the cable set-top market, according to analyst Michelle Abraham.

Even so, many of today’s IPTV set top vendors won’t survive, she said, because the market is overpopulated today. The report, “IP/DSL Set Top Box Market Overflowing with Vendors” covers the global market.

The In-Stat study found IPTV set top prices were highest in the Americas because of the cost of including the digital video recorder, high-definition and multi-room technology in demand in North America. Advanced video compression will be the next technology shift, as MPEG 4 and Windows Media Player 9 are introduced.