THE DVR SHIFT

The first major chink in the advertising armor caused by digital TV is time-shifting, a concept launched by TiVo but now sold as a feature by satellite, cable and telecom companies. About 20% of U.S. homes have DVRs today, said Anne Kissel Elliot, vice president of communications for Nielsen Media Research.

To address the reality that DVR users might be “zapping” the ads or watching recorded shows so long after their original air dates that ads become irrelevant, Nielsen this year is using a new ratings approach, known as C3, that measures the live broadcast audience and any DVR users who view a show within three days of its original air date without fast-forwarding through the ads.

“What our advertising and agency clients wanted us to do was come up with an average commercial-minute file that took into account DVR usage,” Elliot said. Nielsen also has developed the Anytime, Anywhere Media Measurement initiative to measure all media use, including mobile and Internet usage.

Elliot admitted that measuring audiences is an evolving process that has Nielsen talking to new potential clients and stakeholders in an attempt to stay ahead of the technology shifts. “We are not in the earliest stage, but we are still discussing with our clients what it is they need to know,” she said. “It may be a whole different metric. Our clients are still trying to figure out the business model. We will see additional development as the next few months go by. We have a client meeting in February with a wider range of clients than we've ever had before.”

There isn't even agreement on the extent to which DVR users fast-forward through commercials. According to a recent study by media buyer Magna Global, its analysis of Nielsen data shows about three-fourths of all commercials viewed in homes with DVRs are viewed live and 97% are seen within the first three days, indicating DVR users aren't as prone to fast-forward through ads as thought. To anyone who owns a DVR, however, those numbers seem unrealistic.

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