A number of reports have surfaced recently that claim Internet traffic will increase by 5 times over the next several years driven largely by a massive increase in video traffic. We can always quibble over the actually amount that traffic will increase, but suffice it to say it’s going to get extremely busy in the Ether.

Between increased YouTube traffic, the legitimization of peer-to-peer technology from companies like Joost, the rush by content owners to put material online and the rise of social networking sites that will generate more video, traffic will certainly increase by several factors over the next two to three years.

This rise in traffic comes at an interesting and critical time for service providers. The old rules of broadband are being broken apart. Cable operators, used to portraying their high-speed access services as faster then DSL are scrambling to respond to FTTH deployments. And telcos have finally come to their senses and started positioning DSL as more than the cheap alternative to cable modems.

Trumping all of this, though, is the fact that many telcos and cable operators are beginning to realize that there is more to this game than seeing who can provide the largest pipe into users’ homes for the cheapest price. Indeed, there might actually be a limit on the amount of data users can reasonably seek in a consumer broadband offering.

The evidence ironically comes from the cable world, where speed and massive volumes of data have been the traditional currency of choice. Time Warner recently started testing the concept of charging users on the volume of data consumed and not the rate at which it’s delivered. Even more important evidence comes from Canada.

In announcing 30 Mb/s and 50 Mb/s service in parts of Quebec, Videotron placed monthly bit caps of 30 Gb and 50 Gb on users. Admittedly, 30 Gb and 50 Gb caps are not likely to impact the average consumer, but by putting that limitation in place, Videotron is the first to admit that perhaps it’s not in the best interest of service providers to offer all-you-can-eat service for fast food pricing.

This is a positive and long past due move for U.S. service providers, but is likely ultimately to fall on its face. Giving consumers an open data spigot made sense in a time when data volumes were manageable, video was isolated to small clips and peer-to-peer usage was still on the fringes. But in an environment where most consumers are downloading or streaming video, peer-to-peer is mainstream and data volumes are exploding in both upstream and downstream paths, it’s logical that service providers would put on volume caps or expect the heaviest users to pay up.

However, this move is doomed to fail for two reasons. First, the cat is already out of the bag. U.S. consumers have become accustomed to all-you-can-eat pricing and aren’t likely to respond positively to sudden shifts in that model. Changing the rules at this stage of the game will win service providers a date with regulators and potentially legislatures. Second and perhaps more important is the competitive environment. Time Warner’s test will be watched closely, but ultimately it’s not likely to succeed without a similar move by DSL providers. And in a market where saturation points are being openly discussed, competitive service providers are certainly not going to be in the cooperative move.

Vince Vittore is program manager of Yankee Group’s Enabling Technologies Service Provider group with an expertise in broadband solutions.