Emptying the notebook post-CTIA:

The wireless industry is doing remarkably well in face of a U.S. economic slow-down. That’s not an easy feat, but the momentum driving wireless broadband and new services/devices is just that strong. CTIA glowed with health in a way that many trade shows this year have not and will not. And check out AT&T Mobility’s numbers, shared at the show: 2.7 million new net adds in the quarter; 58%-plus data revenue increase year-over-year; 38.2% adjusted margins; $11.4 billion in revenue for 16% year-over-year growth. Impressive.

3G/4G is coming now, ahead of 700Mhz spectrum. This may be obvious to wireless insiders but is important to note. The first WiMAX networks are rolling out now, putting pressure on carriers to move forward their LTE commitments from 2010/11 to 2008/09. Meanwhile, AT&T and Verizon laid out their 700Mhz plans, both targeting 2010 and beyond. If that seems to imply an orderly timeline or consistent technology path for 4G, forget it. Vodafone CEO Arun Sarin warned against a looming 4G standards war that nonetheless seems inevitable as carriers race to deliver better broadband wireless.

Wireless networks with IP backbones = one giant cordless phone. What do I mean by that? Wireless, it turns out, isn’t so much about mobility (i.e., talking in a moving car) as it is about ubiquitous access. With an IP backbone, technology and economics dictate that the goal of wireless is to get users onto the IP core as quickly as possible and via shortest link possible. That will drive femtocells on the incumbent side and mobile/Wi-Fi VoIP on the alternative side. The common factor is a converged IP network driving cost out of the equation. For providers the operational question is how to save pennies-on-the-call by optimizing how calls traverse around that IP/Ethernet/DSL core. Those savings go right to the bottom line. I had an interesting conversation on this topic with the GM of wireless business at Sonus, Clarke Ryan, a vendor that saw this same transition on the wireline side of the business a decade ago. Once competition gets heated and price competition arrives ($99 flat rate) “the ‘green visor guys’ come in and look at the expenses,” Ryan said.

The iPhone’s major impact was to break the innovation logjam -- not form factor or even cool factor. Mobile app providers complained to me that they’ve been pitching operators “visual voice mail,” for years – but Apple stepped up to do it first. The mobile * mass * market will always lag the mobile cutting edge, as it should. But the distance between the two must – and I think, will – shrink.

Mobile app development today is highly fragmented but when successful also highly pragmatic. I sat in on a panel of operators, handset makers and mobile app developers. It was clear they all operate with a spreadsheet in their head that catalogs the “x” different devices, “y” different OSs and “z” different runtimes/tools they have to write-to to deliver a mobile app. That said, successful developers, like EA’s mobile games division, succeed by mastering that complexity. “More complexity means more choice,” said EA VP Travis Boatman. “That’s where the customers are.”

What were your impressions of CTIA? Let us know.

E-mail me at rkarpinski@telephonyonline.com.