Ovum has revised its outlook for the global optical equipment industry to account for changes in the global economy seen since the research and analysis firm’s last report in June.

Ovum now expects the global optical networking market to shrink 5% in 2009 to $15.4 billion, after growing 8% this year. Previously, Ovum had predicted the market would grow 20% this year and 11% in 2009 to more than $20 billion.

Starting in 2010, the optical sector should start to grow again, Ovum said, projecting a six-year stretch of 8% compound annual growth, bringing the market to more than $23 billion in 2013.

Next year, however, Ovum expects North America and Europe/the Middle East/Africa to be hit the hardest. In terms of product categories, Ovum expects aggregation gear to see the biggest declines next year, including single-wavelength multiservice provisioning platforms. Bandwidth management gear, including traditional and optical crossconnects, should also struggle, the firm said. Metro wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) gear should see the smallest decline. And sales of submarine systems should actually grow next year – good news for components vendors, since WDM and submarine gear require more components than other types of optical products.