I'm told that Tellabs CEO Krish Prabhu got on a plane shortly after the company's Thursday morning conference call (hopefully to the Bahamas, considering how stressful last week was). And as a result, I still haven't found out why he told investors on that call that Tellabs' chances of meeting Verizon Communications' early deployment requirements for Gigabit passive optical networking gear were "as good as the next guy's." (To be fair, I stopped searching for an answer after Friday, when I caught a plane of my own, not to return to the office until next week.)

An analyst had asked Prabhu if the timetable for production of Tellabs' GPON gear, which has lagged behind Verizon's schedule, would hinder the vendor's chances of winning the pole position in Verizon's GPON rollout. Prabhu dismissed the notion, pointing out that, as Verizon's incumbent PON supplier, Tellabs can save time bypassing much of the integration process. But a few hours later, Verizon announced that the first GPON platform it will deploy (the first to be deployed by any Bell company, in fact) will be the one Alcatel unveiled more than a year before Tellabs. (Tellabs expects Verizon to deploy its gear starting in next year's first quarter, but Verizon isn't saying.)

Though nobody knows which vendor(s) will end up dominating the actual deployment, that chronological pecking order added an extra sheen to what was for Alcatel a triumphant upset of a rival incumbent. Motorola and Alcatel both issued their own press releases trumpeting the GPON announcement moments after Verizon's decision hit the wires. But as far as I know, Tellabs never did. Was the news a surprise to Prabhu?

With AT&T expected to pick its own GPON suppliers next month, the contest isn't over. But for Tellabs to pull off the same feat as Alcatel--getting the pole position in an AT&T GPON deployment despite Alcatel's incumbency there--seems like a long shot, given Alcatel's unique role as the integrator of AT&T's triple-play network. And it wouldn't have the same weight because AT&T is currently not as committed to PON as Verizon.

Analysts were right to predict that Tellabs would still have a seat at the Verizon GPON table, even if it showed up late for supper. But Alcatel's early and aggressive introduction of GPON gear (its first customer named three months later) was clearly calculated to unseat Tellabs' place at Verizon and to be, well, "the next guy" in the coveted Verizon PON project. It clearly paid off.

E-mail me at EGubbins@telephonyonline.com.