The big vendor's management team is suspected of scapegoating

Alcatel-Lucent pointed to an unexpected drop in spending among U.S. mobile operators as the cause of its revised projection for flat revenue this year. But as it was the third such warning in four quarters, analysts have begun to suggest that the mega-vendor's problems are more internal.

“We are disappointed in management's lack of execution in wireless and believe achieving double-digit margins in mobility will be unlikely in the foreseeable future,” UBS Investment Research analysts wrote following Alcatel-Lucent's warning.

Some may recall that, before she became Alcatel-Lucent's CEO, Pat Russo blamed Lucent Technologies' 2005 shortfall on U.S. carrier spending “tightening up” unexpectedly in the last month of the year. However, analysts later said the problem was not industrywide, as carriers spent 29% of their annual budget that quarter.

If domestic mobile spending is the problem this year, Alcatel-Lucent shouldn't expect it to go away by itself, according to Ovum-RHK, which predicts North American mobile spending to sink 1% over the next five years.

But wireless isn't the only trouble spot for the vendor in this year's second half. Russo also told The Wall Street Journal this month that while “the problems are predominantly in mobility,” she also sees “a bit of softness on the wireline side” and recent signs pointing to “a little bit of softness for the second half.”

Still, she insisted the company was executing on its plan without losing market share, and she hinted at increasing the company's planned post-merger cuts. Some analysts, however, read her resolve as a state of denial.

“With the Lucent merger not likely to provide the cure for the declining fundamentals in Alcatel's mobile infrastructure business, we believe a change in strategy will likely be required,” UBS analysts said. “Unfortunately, current management does not appear to be ready to change course.”