"IPTV is the dumbest idea ever, and telcos are going to get killed doing it."

That quote is from a well-known person in the industry. Someone whose opinion often is cited by both vendors and carriers as backing evidence to move into new markets. Since I wasn't interviewing this person for a story, it would be unfair to reveal his or her identity. But the logic behind the statement is something that is becoming more common.

The thought process works like this: as companies like Google, Yahoo, Sling Media and Apple go direct to consumers with video services, they will win the eyeballs and wallets of subscribers. Because those companies are already adept at marketing to consumers and have or will have plenty of unique content, the telco advantage of using IP to get into the video business disappears. Nice logic, but if history is any guide, the market won't develop quite that way.

Sure, the portals will capture some consumers and there may even be a trend in which users simply abandon their video service provider altogether. But how much of the market do those users really represent? More important, what percentage of those users are willing to go through the issues brought up when marrying PC-based services with their TVs?

It wasn't that long ago that DSL was suppose to be taking over the U.S., leaving cable operators destitute. Reality, of course, turned out to be something very different, and DSL providers are still playing catch-up. Don't be surprised to see the same type of market development in video.

While addressing the issue of portals disaggregating telco video plans, Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg said anything that leads to more broadband usage is a good thing. Perhaps even more enticing, though, will be the opportunity opened by portals. While the early adopters have the knowledge and patience to converge all the various options into a seamless package, the vast majority don't and won't.

E-mail me at VVittore@prismb2b.com.