Harald Braun brings a high-level energy to any conversation about telecom. As President of Siemens Communications Networks Division, he’s also looking at the big picture, and to kick off 2007 he came up with his own list of seven major trends. He spoke with Editor-at-Large Carol Wilson on his “Seven for 2007” list.

1. Proliferation of IP-enabled end points. There as been an explosion in IP enabled end points--nobody is investing anything anymore in TDM. That is now over. Last year we had still some revenue from that, but this year I expect not a lot. It is falling off the cliff. IPTV would be one new IP-enabled end point, with IMS applications for the TV or the IP-enabled set-top boxes. Also, IP-enabled gaming. That is what we are seeing—machine-to-machine language. We are reach the point where everything in the home will have an IP address, like the metering system that measures what you use on your utilities at home. Insurance companies will be using wireless modules to measure how many cars are out there and what you are doing with that car. Medical applications will have devices that have an IP address in the home where you can measure your blood pressure directly.
2. ENUM and IP Peering. This is a follow-on to number one. We see more and more ENUM [electronic numbering] and IP peering happening. We have still TDM around, and it will be there for at least six to eight years. Since that is there, we need to interwork with the IP network--this is the biggest problem for end users and telephone companies. We don’t see any RFPs without ENUM requirements. Unfortunately, the industry doesn’t have a clear idea about IP peering and how it will happen. I would say it is a very challenged business model. We have to work with it, and we have to work on business models and how to make it work. With all the IP end points, the strength in ENUM and IP peering will take off. Our challenge is how we can make the business model work for IP peering.
3. IP multimedia subsystem (IMS) and fixed/mobile convergence (FMC). This will be the year for IMS. The architecture is there. We have products for that architecture that we can really build on. We have had a field trial and a lot of lab trials. IMS is moving from lab to field to deployment, and 2007 will be the initial deployment phase for a lot of companies. Even the big traditional telephone companies are saying this is our architecture--it is the best architecture out there, there is nothing better than that. Love it or hate it, that is the architecture, and let’s see how we can make it work. Plus, SBC/AT&T and Verizon/MCI are asking, “How can we combine the platforms and what are the synergies? How can we get to one platform?” IMS plays a big role. Consolidation drives IMS. FMC is just an application--but it is a very important application. Cable companies going for a quadruple play. They already have a triple play, and they are providing services there. The only thing they are missing is the mobility portion. And they are buying big-time spectrum. They want to do something. They are all moving to the same direction, to IMS. Time Warner is leader, then Comcast and Cox--they know what they want to do in the future, and we would like to help them. What applications do you want on that--let’s do the voice call first, handoff to PSTN, Wi-Fi WiMAX and CDMA--seamless handoff between the different networks that is the number-one choice. Plus, the CTOs say. “Give us very easy to adopt applications so we can provide easy apps on top of that.”
4. Service delivery platforms (SDPs) and service-oriented architectures (SOAs). For me, numbers three, four and five go together. Everything we do in our product portfolio should be IMS-ready, IMS-compliant. It is useless when you don’t put applications on this infrastructure. We need to put apps on top of that. How do you do it in the best way is with trend number four. When we have the layered structure--the application layer, then control, then access, then CPE and devices--between the application layer and the control layer, I paint in a layer that we call service delivery platform. We have to make sure we put in apps very fast and in an efficient way, and we make them available in no time. And that can only be done with SDP. We see that demand coming. For us, it requires a lot of investment, but it is essential. For me, the SOA is a standards-based scenario. We need to make sure that we can put them in between the app layer and the control layer. Because of all these Web-based services, it is an absolute necessity to put this together or add it to that layer.
5. Multimedia applications and services, including IPTV. We developed what we call ‘fast concept’ so that we have think-tanks out in the marketplace. They have nothing else to do but come up with ideas. These are dissipated to a wide range of partners to develop apps, then we put that in an SDP or IMS network, put them in application layer and make them available to our customers. I challenge them to have that done in three months. The best part is when the customer doesn’t think the application will hunt, we take it back. When you ask the customer which applications they want, that’s the wrong question. They ask us back, “What do you think? You have worldwide experience.” We have seen that gaming was the number-one application worldwide. The U.S. is behind but catching up very fast. The second thing--we have a program with Georgia Tech, we have an arrangement with them. We have a contest going on there for Georgia Tech students who develop applications, and we give up to 100K for teams or individuals who come up with the best. We have already had a first cut.
6. Broadband wireless access. In the rest of the world, this was a trend four to five years ago. Last year, it really took off in the U.S. We never saw so many RFPs and RFIs in the Wi-Fi space. In the [fall] time frame, we saw the initial deployments--some by municipalities, some by cable and some by traditional telecom. Now we also see Wi-Fi mesh--a lot of mobile companies are coming into the situation and also into WiMAX. They are seeing that the backhaul from base station to antenna and from antenna to CO is eating up their profits. They look to Wi-Fi and WiMAX as an alternative. And we start to see WiMAX deployment, on the AWS spectrum and elsewhere.
7. Ethernet over DWDM. Everybody, whether it is AT&T or Sprint or Verizon, has to get ready for this tremendous amount of data in the backbone. A lot of people renovate their networks--they are going IP from core to door. This will be the year for a lot of deployments, we see a lot of DWDM and Ethernet. Its cost-effectiveness and the speed it can deliver are what make it attractive. Opex is eating up a lot of backbone costs and Ethernet is coming into that arena. It will help them save.