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Mobile ESPN may not be dead yet

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Pyramid Research senior analyst Ozgur Aytar was preparing for a speech at the MVNO Sustainable Business Models Conference when the untimely news began to circulate: Disney was shutting down its Mobile ESPN mobile virtual network operator venture.

“It kind of shattered the mood,” Aytar said, recognizing the understatement with a laugh. “All of these companies there wanted to be MVNOs and see the model succeed.

Everyone knew there would be fatalities along the way, but not this soon.”

And perhaps not this high profile of a demise. Mobile ESPN lasted only nine months from its glitzy Superbowl launch to the late September announcement that it would shut down operations by the end of this year. The company never revealed subscriber numbers, but several industry analysts estimated that the MVNO had lured only a small fraction of its stated goal to have 250,000 subscribers at the end of its first year.

Wall Street and industry technology analysts disagreed about what Mobile ESPN should do. Many financial analysts called for a quick shutdown to stem growing losses, while the latter group, for the most part, issued pleas for patience, at least through the fourth quarter, when the mobile industry typically experiences the most customer churn.

Initially, the Mobile ESPN shutdown sparked fears of irreparable damage to the entire MVNO model, but analysts now rationalized it as a strategic move to turn a losing proposition into a more promising one.

Mobile ESPN officials said they been approached by several mobile carriers interested in signing licensing agreements with ESPN. “They are clearly talking to a number of mobile network operators, but what we don't know is if it would be licensing to many carriers or have a more exclusive arrangement with a single carrier,” Aytar said.

ESPN would seem to have a big enough brand name and wherewithal that it could continue to exist as an off-deck content application available via many carriers, but the willingness of carriers to support off-deck content remains a controversial issue. Also, Seamus McAteer, senior analyst at M:Metrics, said ESPN could better leverage its powerful image into prominent positions on mobile carrier portals.

“A direct-to-consumer model might not serve its purpose, but every carrier would covet a close relationship with ESPN,” he said.

However, Adam Guy, managing director at market research firm Compete, said a simple content licensing agreement wouldn't leverage Mobile ESPN's full value. Sports content is everywhere, he said, “but the interface is unique. There isn't a whole tree of clicks to get to the content you want. But the application is tied to the phone. You can't just go and put that interface on a [Motorola] RAZR.”

For that reason, Guy said, Mobile ESPN could strike a more encompassing, but exclusive, partnership with a major carrier. However, if the value really is in the user experience and interface, another option for Mobile ESPN would be to create a firmware product to transpose to many handsets using flash updates.

McAteer added that the user interface that vendor UIEvolution designed for Mobile ESPN is “elegant” and probably could be included in any carrier partnerships ESPN develops. “That interface could be ported to a range of other devices,” he said.

TOP 10 NEWS BRAND REACH

According to M:Metrics, in July, 26.7 million people accessed news and information on their mobile device; 11.5 million — or 6.1 percent — people accessed sports information with their mobile phone. Males account for 8.6 million of those people.

Brand Projected subscribers Percent
CNN/cnn.com 3,299,995 1.7
Yahoo 3,162,934 1.7
ESPN Sports News 2,398,688 1.3
ABCNews.com 1,620,006 0.9
Fox News 1,535,069 0.8
MSN Mobile/MSNBC 1,378,175 0.7
USA Today 1,022,487 0.5
Fox Sports 915,106 0.5
AOL Mobile/aol.com 863,010 0.5
CBS Sportsline 855,140 0.5
Source: M:Metrics

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