It's been forty years since I discovered that the most influential man in my life was just a hoax in a hokey red suit. That crushing blow was but the first in a lifelong series of lesser disappointments that helped create the skeptic I am today. Next came the Easter Bunny, the Tooth Fairy then Cupid.

The erosion of these delightful fantasies helped me realize that not all was as it seemed in this world. It also helped prepare me for life's biggest lesson: not all dreams come true, not every prayer is answered, not every need is met nor every promise kept. Not every desire is fulfilled.

That may sound disheartening, but it's quite the opposite. There is a balance to most things and the erosion of fantasies is no exception, because it also applies to the bogeyman, the Werewolf, the devil and ghosts. It leaves the door open for some hope, some dreams, some desires and wishes. And in the absence of both enchanting and terrifying fantasy, we are left with reality. And that's fine by me. In the real world, there is still plenty to believe in.

I believe there are lots of Santa Clauses in the real world--they just don't all wear red suits. I believe there are more than enough devilish people in the world--and they don't all live in the remote tribal regions of Afghanistan.

I believe that communication can solve the world's problems, but not communications technology.

I believe mobility solutions can set you free, but not if you don't know when to put them down.

I believe competition can motivate the industry, but not when it comes in the forms of regulation or price wars.

I believe further consolidation among the large ILECs or major wireless operators beyond what is already in progress would do more harm than good--but that long distance companies must go.

I believe growth and efficiency can be achieved while maintaining job opportunities.

I believe this industry will look much different this time next year and mostly for the better--although, I believe we're due for a big SNAFU in a major VoIP deployment that will cause people to take a step back and rethink security and redundancy.

I believe Verizon is doing the right thing by taking fiber all the way to the home.

By the same token, I believe BellSouth is doing the right thing by taking its time--to each his own.

I believe we have to be careful that we don't regret pumping all that investment and technology know-how into China.

I believe the next two years will be huge for OSS, especially in IP-related solutions.

However, I believe several OSS vendors won't be around to reap the benefits, at least in name or as the independent entities they are today. And next year it will be the test equipment makers' turn to consolidate.

I believe one or more of the following companies will get acquired this year: Portal Software, Micromuse, Atreus Systems. Openet Telecom or Syndesis.

I believe that although there has been very little word coming from Piscataway of late, that Telcordia will make at least two acquisitions by the end of the first quarter.

I believe the mother of all turf wars will take place between Convergys and Amdocs as Sprint and Nextel come together.

I believe Microsoft will become more of a household name in the telco environment.

I believe that anyone still working today and reading this newsletter should get a bonus.

I believe anyone working voluntarily the rest of this weekend deserves our thanks and if they're working involuntarily deserve our sympathy.

I believe I have rambled long enough.

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and best wishes for the new year.

E-mail me at tmcelligott@primediabusiness.com