As I prepare to leave for Las Vegas and the Broadband Wireless World Forum, a short prediction on one point of discussion that I believe will dominate WiMAX discussions during the event--especially in the wake of the WiMAX Forum's quarterly members meeting last week, the opening of the Cetecom facility for WiMAX equipment certification testing, and Intel's commercial launch of a WiMAX chip earlier this week: The comparisons to high-speed mobile technologies will be rampant--and incorrect.

In the U.S. service provider market in particular, WiMAX technology will not rival 3G mobile platforms like EV-DO, UMTS and HSDPA--but that hasn't stopped a large contingent of industry-watchers from always mentioning them in the same breath. The network operator beneficiaries of these technologies aren't even in the same category: In the U.S., WiMAX will be employed first by wireless ISPs for broadband access connectivity to small and medium-sized enterprises. It also may be used by landline operators seeking quicker time-to-market and less expensive--if temporary--extension of fiber-to-the-premises networks. It isn't likely to be of much use to wireless network operators.

The comparisons between WiMAX and 3G mobile architectures are natural, especially considering the future mobility aspirations of WiMAX and the similar timing of their expected deployment. But I believe they're inaccurate, because the two technology tracks--broadband wireless access and next-gen mobile services--are parallel, not contradictory, and will be pursued by very different sets of service providers.

That's my opinion, at least. I'll report back next week on what the broadband wireless set was saying at the forum.

E-mail me at jmeyers@primediabusiness.com