The research firm Maravedis released a report today that predicts high-volume, low-margin opportunities for WiMAX technology vendors in India, provided regulatory and spectrum issues are adequately addressed by the Indian government.

The report, which Maravedis compiled in partnership with India-based telecom consultancy Tonse Telecom, forecasts 13 million WiMAX users in India by 2012. The large population of India and the relative lack of wireline infrastructure make the region ripe for WiMAX to address broadband access needs, according to the report. However, spectrum issues--both the amount issued to licensees and where it falls in the spectrum band--could temper the market if not addressed by regulatory bodies, Maravedis predicts.

Spectrum licenses for broadband wireless access were issued in the 3.3 GHz range, which is not yet part of the WiMAX profile, said Adlane Fellah, senior analyst for Maravedis. Also, the amount of spectrum issued--12 MHz and less per licensee--is not enough to support full WiMAX deployments, he said.

“There are problems that need to be solved,” Fellah said. “We estimate that to offer broadband wireless access services profitably on a widespread basis, you need at least 20 MHz. We strongly suggest that the amount of spectrum be increased.”

The government of India does appear to be willing to reallocate spectrum from the government entities that currently occupy it to free up more space for commercial WiMAX, Fellah said.

As for market opportunity, the Maravedis report predicts that the technology vendor winners will be those prepared to address high-volume opportunities with low-cost equipment--particularly customer premises equipment (CPE). Where broadband services currently are available in India, broadband ARPU is estimated at $8 to $10 per month, according to the report.

“We believe the vendors active in India are going to subsidize the equipment because they realize India is a market of huge volume,” Fellah said. Maravedis expects cost of CPE for WiMAX deployments to reach $40 by 2012, he added.