With 802.16-2004 product certification testing scheduled to begin in July, and certified products expected to be on the market by the end of this year, there is plenty of urgency to proclaim that 2005 is the year that WiMAX becomes “real.”

To the extent that some WiMAX Forum-Certified equipment will be available, that's true, but it's also important to remember that the WiMAX market is still in its earliest phases.

It's a point that many people involved with WiMAX are beginning to understand, perhaps better than ever before.

“WiMAX is not the only broadband option out there. It's not growing in a void,” said Mo Shakouri, assistant vice president of business development at Alvarion, and vice president of marketing for the WiMAX Forum.

Indeed, there were 130 million broadband subscribers worldwide at the end of 2004, about 1 million of which were subscriber of fixed broadband wireless access equipment, according to Maravedis Telecom Market Research & Analysis, the Montreal, Canada, agency that recently released the 180-page report, “WiMAX and Broadband Wireless (Sub-11 Ghz) Worldwide Market Analysis and Trends: 2005-2010.”

In the comprehensive study, Maravedis notes, among many other points, that the fixed/portable broadband wireless equipment market for that frequency range was worth about $562 million in 2004, but will grow past the $2 billion mark by 2010.

Also, over the next five years, the number of chipsets based on the 802.16-2004 specification that are shipped for base station and CPE use is expected to grow from almost nothing to more than 4.5 million units shipped in 2010 (Figure 1). The number of base stations shipped, and the total value of the base station market also will grow sharply (Figures 2 and 3).

The Maravedis report states in its executive summary that with large volumes, WiMAX chipsets “could sell for as little as $25,” and that WiMAX-based CPE could have and average selling price of near $100 by 2008.

Additional market research from Yankee Group indicates that wireless is growing in step with other broadband services (Figure 4).