Cox is in, Comcast and Time Warner are out. After the hoopla Google created over the auction’s open access rules, Google is most certainly in, but its rival in the open access debate, Verizon Wireless, has given no firm commitment. Sprint isn’t bidding, but then again it may have enough trouble deploying WiMAX in its 2.5 GHz spectrum without sparking a shareholder revolt. Then there is maverick player Frontline Wireless throwing its hat into the ring.

The 700 MHz auction may prove to be one of the most contentious wireless auctions in history. It has certainly proved to be one of the most controversial. If you hadn’t heard, we did a Webcast on this very topic yesterday (you can view it on-demand here), but I’ll sum up some of the salient points made by Current Analysis’ Bill Ho and Peter Jarich:

1. This is going to be one of the last chances for some time to get new spectrum, and many operators (as well as the Googles of the world) will be pressured to bid on it whether they have an immediate need for it or not.
2. There are larger issues at stake here than just gaining a handful of megahertz. This may be the first opportunity for a U.S. operator to truly tap into a globally harmonized band. The U.S. has the size and clout to get devices and gear made for its unique bands, but the idea of buying the same gear and devices as the Europeans and Asians has appeal.
3. A few years from now, we may very well credit the 700 MHz auction from blowing the open access debate wide open. Sprint got the ball rolling by promising an open WiMAX network, but Verizon Wireless stole the game when it announced its plans to open all of its networks. In an interview with Business Week, Verizon Wireless CEO Lowell McAdams claims that VZW had reached the open-access conclusion last Spring, but the 700 MHz fight with Google definitely cemented VZW’s decision. (The premise of the article—Verizon embraces Google’s Android—is fairly ridiculous, but more on that later). I’m not saying there wouldn’t have been open access if there were no 700 MHz auction, but let’s face it, Verizon Wireless isn’t exactly the quickest carrier in the industry to embrace new business models.

We’ve got us the elements of a “rock ‘em, sock ‘em” throw down in January. But after the dust clears, we may all be surprised at what networks actually emerge from the auction. Remember, this is difficult spectrum to deploy in. There are broadcaster incumbents to deal with, and some of the licenses require sharing with public-safety industries. Depending on who the winners are, we might have the audacious situation of Google as wireless carrier. Or we could see a new nationwide broadband provider emerge in broadband. Or Verizon Wireless could claim the frequencies for a future Long Term Evolution network. Cox could have any number of plans in mind, possibly a broadband data and TV network linked to its cable data and programming platform.

But the possibility is just as likely that something not that earth-changing will come out of the auction. Qualcomm may nail down some more spectrum for its MediaFLO TV service. AT&T may augment its current 700 MHz portfolio with new licenses, using it for boring UMTS (remember when 3G used to be exciting?). And rural and Tier II operators will most certainly clean up on smaller market licenses, to launch more cellular voice networks. The propagation characteristics of 700 MHz are just too good to pass up.

Contact me at kfitchard@telephonyonline.com.