A new study by Informa Telecom & Media has the global wireless industry on track to break all previous year's records for growth, adding a projected 380 million net subscribers by year end.

That would break 2004's record by 45 million subscribers--not a bad year's work. But the good times can't go on forever. Informa projects growth rates will start slowing in 2006 and continue to decline. Admittedly, there's a big difference between a declining rate of growth and declining growth. We're still going to put mobile phones in the hands of hundreds of millions of new customers every year. But it may be that 2005 was the peak.

The reason, according to Informa, was the coincidence of two trends in the developed and developing worlds, Informa said. Developing markets took off like wildfire, accounting for a vast percentage of that growth, but instead of being offset by tepid subscriber increases in mature markets they kept climbing at a steady clip. Targeting youth was part of it, but carriers also managed a decent business of putting second subscriptions into the hands of existing subscribers.

Of course this kind of trend can only go on so long. Countries are reaching 90% penetration and there are only so many phones a single person can have (or is there?) Eventually those developing markets will mature causing further declines. But we still have several years before that happens, and countries like China, India, Mexico and Nigeria will spur enormous growth in the industry. In fact, those wirelessreview.com/mag/wireless_first_billion_always/index.html"> emerging markets may fundamentally change the wireless industry as we know it.

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