It’s Dec. 19, meaning only 12 days left for Modeo to deliver on its promise of a multicast TV network. Sure, Modeo might slip in their New York launch quietly before New Year’s Day, but they’ve most likely missed the Christmas rush.

Except for its test network in Pittsburgh and trial in Houston, there hasn’t been any activity from Modeo and its promised Digital Video Broadcast-Handheld broadcast network. In fact, they’ve been scaling back their promises since CES last January. Then they promised a commercial launch in select markets, including New York City, by the end of the year. A few months ago, they scaled their plans back to just New York. And even then, they weren’t clear on whether it would be a commercial launch or a commercial trial. With no announced carrier partners, the broadcaster would have to rely on unlocked DVB-H phones and customers savvy enough to switch out another carrier’s SIM card.

Now, it looks like there may be no launch at all. Qualcomm promised a 2006 commercial launch of its mobile TV, too, and it has admitted it will miss that deadline in a nod to its carrier partner Verizon Wireless, which plans to launch its MediaFLO-powered service in Q1. Qualcomm, however, has been a flurry of trial activity, with video signals raining down on conferences in Las Vegas and an obvious launch prep going on in half a dozen cities in the U.S. It has also not only managed to sign on Verizon Wireless as a customer, it has landed commercial trial agreements from T-Mobile and Sprint.

Crown Castle’s Modeo, however, seems to be losing momentum rather than gaining it. Earlier this month, Modeo CEO Michael Schueppert quit to pursue other opportunities--they must have been some exciting opportunities considering Modeo was prepping for a nationwide launch--leaving vice president <a href=http://telephonyonline.com/wireless/finance/modeo_ceo_ramke_121106/index.html>Michael Ramke in charge</a>. On the technology side, Modeo was still wrestling with the FCC for permission to boost its transmission power from the unique radio astronomy frequencies its using--or at least change the way that power output is measured. The rule change could mean a difference of thousands of cell towers. Life doesn’t seem to be getting easier on the corporate side either, with its parent company distracted by the integration of its recent $4 billion acquisition of Global Signal.

Modeo’s biggest concern, however, is its lack of customers or even perspective customers. Even latecomer to mobile TV Aloha Partners has announced a trial in Vegas with T-Mobile. Modeo has yet to indicate any outside interest in its new multicast network. I won’t write Modeo off just yet. A major launch with Cingular Wireless could be right around the corner at CES or CTIA (during either of which, Verizon Wireless and Qualcomm will likely unveil MediaFLO). Maybe they’ve just done a good job keeping it secret. But if Modeo is really just successfully flying under the radar, it’s using some awfully sophisticated stealth technology.