It didn't take long for many industry observers to begin condemning the mobile virtual network operator model. All it took was one quarter's worth of financial reports from mobile carriers showing sharp drops in their wholesale subscriber numbers.

Well, maybe it took more than that. Reports of slower-than-expected growth at Mobile ESPN and Helio certainly gave the MVNO critics more ammunition. So, was anyone who's supported the MVNO business model these past few years wrong about what it was capable of accomplishing? I've heard the critics compare MVNOs to CLECs and dot-coms enough times in recent months, but those wholesale numbers and recent reports offer the first evidence that these comparisons might be valid.

Still, it's really early in the game, isn't it? Maybe this is an apples/oranges comparison, but an awful lot of people were ready to declare WiMAX an over-hyped failure before last week's news that Sprint will deploy the technology nationwide. My guess is that we haven't seen all of what the MVNO model has to offer. Perhaps consumers that know the MVNO brands from their previous exploits need a little more time to figure out what MVNOs have to offer, and especially to free themselves from existing contracts.

At the same time, it's more than likely that MVNOs need to adjust their business models and expectation to reflect market realities. While piggy-backing on someone else's network, activation and distribution capabilities is a low-risk and inexpensive way of getting started in the wireless market, MVNOs need to realize that in doing so they also forfeit control over those key business functions. Some people have speculated that more MVNOs will invest in these areas as they get their feet wet, but they may have to do so more quickly than they planned.

Many companies from other markets have pursued MVNO efforts because they believed their brand vitality gave them potential to realize greater rewards. Well, so far, it appears that the trouble with MVNOs is that success isn't only about the brand, after all.

On a completely different note, don't forget to register for Telephony's IPTV Workshop at this year's Fall VON trade show in Boston on Monday, Sept. 11. You can register now, right here.