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Bumps in the wireless road

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2007 ended with such momentum in the wireless market: Google announcing Android, the iPhone approaching 4 million users (confirmed today by Apple), the 700 MHz auction kicking off and every company from Verizon to AT&T and beyond jumping on the open bandwagon.

So what’s this: a few bumps in the road?

Recent days have seen some developers questioning the readiness of the Android OS (Telephony), worries about the viability of the 700 MHz spectrum auction (WSJ) and disappointment about the lack of a 3G iPhone or WiMAX-enabled MacBook (Telephony). At least “open” is still the mobile buzzword du jour -- at least until (business) reality hits in the coming weeks and months.

Each of these “set-backs” comes with a significant caveat, however.

On the auction front, the big news was the pullout of Frontline Wireless, whose sole reason for existence was to make a bid for new spectrum. That led the Wall Street Journal to react (over-react?) by mulling about the “collapsing” of the auction at worst and a revamping of the terms at best -- including possible removal of public safety, net neutrality or time-to-market conditions. That said on Monday, on Tuesday the FCC released a list of 214 bidders (Ars Technica), at least temporarily putting some buzz back into the auction run-up.

I asked Kevin Fitchard, Telephony’s wireless expert, about the auction momentum (or lack thereof). Kevin said he suspects carriers “will jump at any opportunity to get spectrum cheap, no matter how many restrictions are attached to it. Spectrum is a scarce resource, and they’ll grab as much as they can. [In particular], to offer true broadband, services companies are going to need large swaths of spectrum, not the 10 MHz chunks they use today.”

As for Android, even as developers expressed concerns about the market for third-party Android apps -- in particular, in the absence of Android phones -- the first Android live demo, from vendor a la Mobile, hit the streets. Google promised phones would start to appear in the second half of the year, making a la Mobile’s engineering feat particularly notable.

Finally, Apple. While the company disappointed by not delivering a 3G phone, in particular, it did update the iPhone operating system with some new capabilities, most notably allowing users to add new icons to the home screen. Today, those new apps can mainly be shortcuts to Web sites or Web apps; coming next month, with the confirmed release of the iPhone SDK, we’ll start to see native iPhone third-party apps -- making the iPhone not only slicker but also more “functional” then most other wireless devices.

Can a market simultaneously be moving to slowly and too quickly? That might be the best description of the wireless and mobile market today. And that’s a good thing. It means innovation is happening (change) and people are watching (change never comes fast enough).

Strap in for a wild ride in 2008.

E-mail me at rkarpinksi@telephonyonline.com.

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