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Spectrum speculation

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With the February close of the FCC's Auction 58 — a clearinghouse for wireless spectrum licenses acquired during past auctions and then returned when the winning bidders failed to pony up the dough necessary to pay for said airwaves — an era unofficially came to an end. Auction 58 was, in all likelihood, the final FCC-administered spectrum free-for-all, and while analysts speculated the bidding would match the fever pitch of days past and rake in anywhere from $3 billion to $3.5 billion, the final tally fell well shy of such lofty expectations, generating only $2.25 billion after 91 rounds of bidding. Winning bids for the top 10 U.S. markets averaged just 56% of their 2001 auction prices. Without a doubt, times have changed. But even with conventional wisdom in 2005 suggesting that it's far easier to merge with a nationwide rival or snap up a series of small regional carriers if you want to expand your footprint, be careful not to assign too much significance to Auction 58's underwhelming outcome. Some analysts have speculated that the industry is entering a new era of rationalization, or that carriers are suddenly content with their overall spectrum positions — as if any wireless operator has ever been satisfied with its lot in life. No, Auction 58 merely represents a final moment of serenity before all hell breaks loose. In June 2006, a 90 MHz block of transferred government spectrum in the 1710 MHz to 1755 MHz and 2110 MHz to 2155 MHz ranges comes up for sale, and this time there will be no FCC restrictions, however flimsy, to keep the insanity in check. And you thought the eBay bidding over that grilled cheese sandwich allegedly bearing the image of the Virgin Mary was crazy?

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