Key applications are starting to emerge from the blur of m-commerce's potential.

The wireless industry already has seen incredible revenues within its history. If the past moved in fifth gear, then the future will hit warp speed. Change already is here; wireless phones are no longer just for talking. With wireless Internet and m-commerce, the industry approaches a transformation that promises to create revenues of legendary proportions.

Ovum believes the number of mobile devices with Internet access will outnumber connected computers by 2003. It also predicts that consumers will spend more than $200 billion worldwide in m-commerce by 2005. Everyone has heard some variation of these predictions. Debate exists as to just how huge the numbers will be, but when dealing with hundreds of billions of dollars, the consensus is clear that m-commerce will have plenty of zeros.

David Friedman, U.S. Cellular vice president of marketing, believes that reality eventually will exceed those numbers; when that will happen is the uncertain factor.

"Whether or not it's in 2004 or 2005 or 2006, it will eventually take place," he said.

According to Durlacher's Mobile Commerce Report, m-commerce hype will nosedive into disappointment and reality in 2000 and 2001. By the following year, though, m-commerce will rise sharply from the ashes.

Look around and you can sense the anticipation of m-commerce. Providers are allying with portals and ASPs, creating an intricate web of partnerships.

Kathy Simpson, Phone.com director of developer marketing, said teamwork between providers and vendors is critical for success in m-commerce.

"Much like there are vendors who provide a specific piece of the e-commerce solution, (which) needs to be connected to other pieces, I think we're going to see the same thing in the wireless (commerce) world," she related.

Friedman concurred, noting that the way to offer m-commerce is through partnerships.

"There's no cellular company that I know, not even the large ones, that can put all these pieces together by themselves," he said.

While everyone tries to figure out what will dethrone e-mail as the killer app, the only sure thing is that there will be plenty of contenders. In the evolution of m-commerce services, there are those that will arrive sooner rather than later; some are even closer than you might think.

Find Your Price Imagine this scenario: You're at Home Cinema, shopping for a DVD player. You find the one you want for $299.95. You access a comparison-shopping service via your wireless phone and select the make and model of the specific DVD player. A search returns the following among the results: You can order it online from awesomemovies.com for $289 or visit McKracken's electronics store, two miles away, where it sells for $275. You can choose one option or show the salesman the results and barter for a better deal. The choice is yours.

Friedman cited a similar example and identified comparison shopping as one service that he believes will be in early demand. Cynthia Hswe, Strategis Group analyst, believes that mobile comparison shopping will be more widely accepted than any other m-commerce application. Hswe thinks that it will be an immediate hit because it does not require the user to release any personal information. Initially, consumers will hesitate to use services that require personal data or their location. Wireless providers will have to convince their customers that privacy and security will not be compromised for m-commerce applications. Those that provide practical convenience and help where it matters most, the wallet or purse, will ease consumers into the m-commerce water.

AT&T Wireless and Verizon offer mobile comparison shopping from BarPoint.com. There, a consumer can search for a particular item or type in the product's Universal Product Code (UPC). The service returns information on the item and a list of prices at numerous Internet sites. Consumers then can link to the site of their choice to purchase the item. Eventually users of BarPoint's mobile service may be able to scan the UPC with a scanner-enabled wireless device.

DealTime takes the mobile comparison-shopping concept and "puts it on steroids," according to Garret Lepaw, DealTime vice president of wireless/emerging platforms. Deal-Time mobile users have three options with product-search results: They can send the results to any e-mail address, call the merchant directly via their wireless phones or buy directly through a DealTime account. Although DealTime's mobile service only searches Internet retailers, customers eventually will be able to view prices from fixed and online stores.

Lepaw called the extension of DealTime into the mobile environment critically important to the development of the company. AT&T Wireless, Nextel and Sprint PCS all have DealTime bookmarked on their wireless Internet services. With 19 search categories, DealTime users can compare prices on anything from appliances to video games.

Just launched in May, Lepaw said it was too early to assess the number of hits to the mobile site. DealTime.com, however, ranks in the Internet's top 100 visited sites, with more than five million hits in May. A free service to consumers, DealTime makes its money from lead-generation fees and advertising.

Buybuddy, a comparison-shopping service in Canada, also is available via the fixed or wireless Internet. The site allows users to compare prices and read product reviews on browser-enabled phones and RIM pagers via providers Clearnet and Rogers AT&T. The service will expand into U.S. markets soon, according to Mike Abramsky, Buybuddy CEO.

Thou Shalt Make a Deal Such modern technology may send the shopping experience back in time. With mobile comparison shopping, consumers will have the power to barter with retailers; perhaps one would call it e-negotiating. Stores can match or beat the lower prices shown on the customer's phone, or lose their business to the guy down the street or an online retailer. Phone.com's Simpson believes that mobile comparison shopping will have real effects on business.

"I've heard where people have been shopping for large-ticket items and have shown the salesperson (the mobile comparison results) and said, `Hey, I can order this with one push of the button right now or you can have my business,'" she said.

Simpson, though, doesn't think that comparison shopping will kill business for the bricks-and-mortar world.

"Typically the product isn't all that companies are offering; they're offering additional services that go along with that, and there are some advantages to being local," she said.

Indeed, mobile comparison shopping has revealed that consumers don't always buy based on the lowest price. Lepaw said that DealTime users only select the cheapest price about 25% of the time. He cited brand loyalty as a major factor in purchasing decisions.

Sometimes consumers don't want to wait; they pay more to take the product home rather than wait for the Internet retailer to ship it to them.

Got Your Ticket? Though it may not save consumers any money, mobile ticketing aims at another primary need: convenience. According to Durlacher's m-commerce report, ordering tickets via a mobile device is "one of the most compelling proposed services" in m-commerce. It notes the convenience of ordering movie, concert and theater tickets when consumers are on the move or among friends. Users immediately could order tickets for their favorite band's concert when it's first promoted over the radio.

Carlton Hill, BellSouth director of Internet initiatives, believes that consumers are more likely to purchase tickets with their mobile phones than with PCs; she cited ordering movie tickets while waiting for dessert at a restaurant as one example.

The Durlacher report also predicts that airlines will lead the pack in mobile ticketing given their extensive endeavors in Internet reservations. Durlacher also believes that mobile devices eventually will communicate with the ticket counter via Bluetooth or infrared, allowing consumers to walk with their ticket-phones straight to their seats.

Washington, D.C.-based ZebraPass is looking to make paper tickets extinct. Current service allows consumers to buy tickets online, then walk through a scanner at the event that reads the purchase on a smart card. Eventually, Bluetooth technology will extend the service to any WAP device. ZebraPass hopes to provide electronic tickets to concerts, movies and sports.

Whether mobile comparison shopping and mobile tickets will be the initial movers of m-commerce, only soothsayers really know. Both, though, provide practical uses that will target two primary concerns of consumers: saving money and convenience.