Google is participating in the auction, but it is still unclear what its aims are. Most analysts predict Google has no interest in running a wireless network, and if it wins will likely lease the spectrum back to one of its competitors. If it is actively bidding, it is going after the nationwide C block licenses, the only band with open-access requirements. Google may not be bidding to acquire the licenses, though, as much as it is bidding to ensure that the open-access stipulation remains intact. If the C Block price doesn’t reach the $4.6 billion reserve set by the FCC, it may be forced to re-auction the band without any open-access provisions.

The biggest question mark in the auction, however, is who submitted the lone bid for the D-Block license. The winner—if there is one—of the 22 MHz nationwide license will be required to build a shared public safety/private network that will turn over 10 MHz of capacity to public safety agencies during any period of emergency. The partnership has been hailed as a way to finally bridge the communications systems of thousands of agencies that have not been able to communicate in times of crisis. But if the license fails to meet the $1.3 billion reserve price, the FCC will be faced with the difficult decision of re-auctioning it at a later period or awarding it to a the highest bidder at a deeply discounted price.

The 22 MHz band is still valuable spectrum and will be attractive to many operators, but the stipulations attached to the band may be too much, especially if other unencumbered spectrum is available, Ho said. Verizon Wireless or AT&T certainly have the resources to build the network and work with the Public Safety Spectrum Trust, he said, but he believes it unlikely that either would swoop in at the last moment and snap up the license.

“If I were AT&T and Verizon, I would concentrate on the spectrum I need to run a straight commercial network,” he said.