“Certainly the announcement by Verizon Wireless definitely narrows the scope of UMB in the event that it does go to market,” said Danny Locklear, Nortel director of marketing for wireless networks. “We’ll have to wait to see if it has a trickle-down effect.”

Though one of the prime CDMA vendors, Nortel has taken a neutral approach to 4G technologies and has instead taken a common OFDM platform to UMB, WiMAX and LTE. Locklear said a commercial UMB product line can still emerge from the platform, but as the individual technology paths get closer to standardization, Nortel has begun to direct most of its efforts to LTE and WiMAX.

The CDMA Development Group takes exception to any suggestion that Verizon’s decision is a blow to UMB. CDG Chief Operating Officer James Person said Verizon Wireless’s technology choice was clearly informed by its part owner Vodafone and isn’t a sign that other CDMA operators will defect to LTE.

“It’s not a surprise to us, and it’s not a surprise to the industry,” Person said. “If your half-owner is Vodafone, and you want economies of scale with you’re owners, I can see why you would choose LTE.”

Sprint and Verizon Wireless are only two carriers that have committed to a 4G strategy—there are hundreds of operators the world over. And just as Sprint and Verizon Wireless switched to the WiMAX and LTE paths, GSM operators could opt to switch to the UMB path, Person said.

“We’ve seen a large operator champion for WiMAX, and we’ve seen a large operator champion for LTE,” Person said. “We still expect there will be a first-tier carrier that selects UMB.”

Current Analysis wireless infrastructure analyst Peter Jarich agreed with Person that Verizon’s choice of LTE was a foregone conclusion considering its ties to Vodafone. UMB’s chances weren’t hurt by Verizon’s decision, he said, but then again UMB’s chances weren’t all that good to begin with. Marketing UMB to a GSM provider will be a tough sell, and clearly LTE has momentum across the industry, he said.

Ultimately UMB will live and die by Qualcomm’s decision to make commercial chipsets for the platform, Jarich concluded. Qualcomm makes all of the world’s CDMA chips and a good portion of its W-CDMA chips. If it doesn’t make dual-mode UMB chips for legacy networks, the technology is as good as dead, Jarich said.