Over the last two months, AT&T has gradually introduced data cards embedded with high-speed uplink packet access (HSUPA) technology, but so far the actual launch of its HSUPA network has been nowhere to be seen. AT&T’s official line is that the data card technologies are preceding the networks, future-proofing customers’ current gear for the next big upgrade to its data services. But AT&T may be far closer to large-scale launch than it’s letting on.

According to Current Analysis analyst Bill Ho, AT&T already has the HSUPA deployed in 220 markets, though AT&T hasn’t offered any details on how big or small those markets might be. Assuming AT&T is installing the HSUPA upgrade in the same markets as it is deploying its high-capacity downstream counterpart, high-speed downlink packet access (HSDPA), HSUPA may already be proliferated throughout AT&T’s entire 3G footprint. As of last week, AT&T said it had UMTS/HSDPA networks in more than 200 U.S. major metropolitan areas. HSUPA markets may not conform exactly to metropolitan areas in AT&T’s geography, but it is certainly clear the operator has moved well beyond the test and trial phases of the deployment.

“This is clear as mud as we in the analyst game look at coverage in [points of presence],” Ho said in an e-mail interview. “However, AT&T is looking at 3G deployments in specific areas where they feel there is take rate. This makes sense as they're trying to catch up to [Verizon Wireless] and Sprint's 3G coverage.” While AT&T is talking about markets for HSUPA, Ho added, it likely means portions of markets rather than upgrading the entire 3G footprint at once.

AT&T may be opting to launch the HSUPA network in one fell swoop, similar to the way Sprint launched its CDMA 1X network half a decade ago. If it can bring the upgrade to its entire 3G footprint before launch, it may help AT&T avoid the criticisms it faced with the original 3G launch, which it was very slow to rollout after its initial announcement in 2004. Only in the last year has the 3G footprint reached the scope necessary for it to deploy heftier data services such as Video Share and its over-the-air music store.

HSUPA will add a broadband upstream channel to its already hefty HSDPA capabilities, which support download speeds between 400 kb/s and 700 kb/s. In lab tests, HSUPA has achieved upload speeds far in excess of 1 Mb/s, but its average speeds in commercial networks will be lower. While the benefits of such a big upstream pipe may not be immediately obvious, many of the peer-to-peer communication services that AT&T and other operators envision will depend on having a symmetrical data connection, Ho said. Applications like multi-player gaming, video conferencing, VoIP or anything incorporating real-time two-way elements will need both upstream and downstream capacity to function properly as well as lower network latencies, Ho said.

“What I would think in terms of a consumer space boon is the potential for user-generated content.” Ho said. User-generated content can be consumed on mobile devices today, but creating it is another story. MMS limits the size of photos that can be sent, and any rich media uploaded from the phone hits the bottleneck of the narrow upstream pipe, he said. “So a faster uplink will help that and possibly spur additional use. …The net effect, if carriers and social networking sites play it right, will be upside for all concerned. The carriers will have increased data use and consumption, and the social networking sites become stickier.”